Views regarding the proposed platform differ, with some suggesting that this boat is destined to sink even before setting sail for the first time, while others say that it may be a good idea for those five sailors -- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia and Turkey -- to be on their own in the high seas so they can put their heads together to discuss their issues with each other. Ankara's proposal for the platform came after a regional crisis erupted following a Georgian military offensive in its Russian-backed breakaway region of South Ossetia earlier this month. In the first half of August, PM Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid successive visits to Moscow and Tbilisi and earlier this week traveled to Baku to promote and gain support for the proposed platform. Both Georgian and Russian leaders said they would welcome the idea, while a joint statement released by Erdoğan and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev said Baku had approached the proposal "positively."

Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a state of enmity due to Armenia's continued occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan, and observers say a regional alliance including both countries as members may be difficult to implement. With Armenian troops still in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani leadership is unlikely to warm to any sort of cooperation with Yerevan.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Aliyev, Erdoğan did not refer to Armenia and said instead Turkey was willing to further cooperation with Azerbaijan and Georgia for peace and stability in the Caucasus. He also said the Nagorno-Karabakh problem should be resolved on the basis of principles of international law and through peaceful ways. Aliyev thanked Turkey for its supportive stance.

Ahead of his departure for Baku on Aug. 20, however, Erdoğan disclosed Ankara's eagerness for Armenia's participation in a "Caucasus alliance," as he said it would greatly increase regional stability. He said the form of talks with Armenia would be set following Babacan's consultations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

In the meantime, as of Aug. 16 and 17, Babacan initiated a hectic telephone diplomacy, having talks with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; EU term president France's Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner; German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier; Council of Europe term president Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt; and Alexander Stubb, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) chairman-in-office and Finnish foreign minister.

His talks focusing on Turkey's proposal took place before he departed for Brussels to participate in a key meeting of NATO foreign ministers, who had emergency talks to reconsider the alliance's ties with Russia after the conflict in Georgia.

As of Thursday this week, remarks by Georgian Ambassador to Turkey Grigol Mgaloblishvili, who firmly said that his country would not participate in the proposed cooperation platform for the Caucasus as long as Russia doesn't entirely withdraw its forces from Georgian soil, led to curiosity over whether Tbilisi's initial welcome to the idea was just out of courtesy.

In an initial reaction to the Turkish plans to involve Armenia in the Caucasus talks, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian said Yerevan welcomed the Turkish initiative. "Armenia was always in favor of dialogue and talks, particularly on the issues concerning cooperation and security in our region. The Turkish prime minister's statement on the intention to start talks with Armenia on this agenda could be welcomed," he said in a statement in response to a question posed by Today's Zaman on Wednesday.

It is not clear what shape the planned talks with Armenia will take. Turkey severed its ties with Armenia in the early 1990s in protest of the Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. According to official Turkish policy, normalization of ties depends on Armenian withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh, the termination of the Armenian policy of supporting claims of an Armenian genocide at the hands of the Ottoman Empire and an official endorsement by Armenia of the current borders between the two countries.

As of Friday afternoon Babacan, as expected, initiated a telephone conversation with Russia's Lavrov and spoke of the proposed platform.

"During the conversation, Mr. Babacan conveyed our concrete proposals concerning the Caucasia Stability and Cooperation Platform to the Russian side," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Burak Özügergin told the Anatolia news agency. The two ministers decided to meet next week within this framework, Özügergin said, noting that the two also decided to hold another meeting in early September.

Russia's 'one package for all'

If this platform can at least bring together in Ankara the foreign ministers of the two sides -- Georgia and Russia, who say that they will not meet with each other for the time being -- then it will take an important step on the way to building peace and stability in the Caucasus, believes Associate Professor Kasım Kamer.

South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh are all "frozen conflicts," Kamer, a Caucasia expert of the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO/ USAK), first of all noted, while speaking with Sunday's Zaman.

"OSCE [the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe] is ineffective in regards to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, since Russia is one of the co-chairs in the OSCE Minsk Group. If such a Caucasia platform is established, Russia's participation in this body is inevitable, and if Turkey can get Russia and Georgia together under the same roof, then this will be a success by itself," Kamer said.

"Both Russia and Georgia do not want to give up South Ossetia and Abkhazia at the same time. However there may be a bargaining on the two regions, while Georgia will definitely be very stubborn, as it considers both of the regions its own soil. On the other side, there is a deep lack of confidence vis-à-vis Russia, a lack of confidence which makes expectation of great consequences from this platform in the short run very difficult. Russia's main goal was to topple Saakashvili with its recent move; it would either walk to Tbilisi in order to enter the capital or it would force Georgia to give major concessions, like withdrawing half of its troops from the disputed regions. Nevertheless, none took place, and it seems Saakashvili will remain in power for a considerable time. Thus Russia couldn't reach its eventual goal," he explained.

The Nagorno-Karabakh factor

When asked about the possibility of any improvement in resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the event of their sitting around the same table within the framework of the proposed platform, Kamer underlined that Armenia's acceptance of Turkey's mediation in the international legal sense doesn't seem possible, since Turkey is a party in this dispute. On the other hand, the same thing applies to Russia's mediation from the point of view of Azerbaijan, as according to Azerbaijan, Russia is a party in this dispute, he said.

"What could happen is this: The parties come together around the same table, and they can take steps regarding secondary issues related to Nagorno-Karabakh, for example the refugee issue. In the long run, Russia has a tendency to introduce the issues of Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in one package, which will not be acceptable for a large majority of the international community because the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is entirely different from all others, since Armenia is de facto on Azerbaijan soil via invading Nagorno-Karabakh. Following the unilateral declaration of Kosovo's independence and its recognition by the world, Russia has become increasingly aggressive concerning the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. But it is impossible to put these issues in the same file -- neither geographically nor historically [can this be done]. Even looking at the significant differences of population between Kosovo and these regions make this point clear," Kamer said.

"We also have this triangle of Caucasia, the United States and Turkey. The US is actually looking favorably at all kinds of moves of rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia. Yet a significant step by Armenia is not easy to be taken in the short term due to the clout of the hard-liner Karabakh clan with the leadership of the country. As a matter of fact, Turkey's conditions for reopening the border and re-establishing diplomatic relations are quite moderate," he added.

Does anyone have a better idea?

According to retired Ambassador Özdem Sanberk, a former Foreign Ministry undersecretary and an esteemed foreign policy analyst, Turkish diplomacy has taken a very appropriate step that deserves appreciation -- via maturation of the idea of the Caucasia platform. Sanberk also has a strong conviction that this initiative is destined to "take off," given that Russia, one of the two countries key to rendering the initiative successful, has approached Turkey's idea positively. The other is the United States, which should definitely not be excluded from this process, he says.

"If someone has a better idea, then s/he should come forward and tell us this better idea," Sanberk told Sunday's Zaman, saying that he could not agree with those analysts and politicians who suggest that Turkey's proposed platform is "a stillborn idea."

"Such an initiative could not be taken without having Russia's consent, and Turkey gained this consent. Nobody takes initiatives with consequences or success being taken for granted, as there is always a calculated risk. When Turkey initiated the Black Sea Economic Cooperation back in the early 1990s, the same kinds of comments were made, suggesting that the idea was not realistic at all. But it took off. Later it lost its vigorousness due to neglect by the governments of the time, starting from 1996," Sanberk said, while bringing to mind a similar idea for constituting a Caucasia cooperation platform put forward in 1999 by the then-President Süleyman Demirel.

"Unfortunately the coalition government led by late Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit and the next president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, neglected the idea put forward by Demirel purely on political concerns, since it was not first floated by them, and it failed before it was born," Sanbek continued.

As for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) coming to power for the first time in 2002, it handled the European Union membership process as a priority and made a very appropriate decision by doing so, Sanberk said, adding however, he wished the AK Party government had also made the Caucasus platform idea a priority and had matured it simultaneously with the other priorities, such as playing a key role in the Middle East.

"When governments give clear signals about their priorities, the people of Turkey read this message and act accordingly and make the necessary sacrifices falling on their shoulders. In the case of the absence of clear signals and messages, extreme ideas such as Turkey joining the Shanghai Five or its establishing a new front with Iran and Russia gain currency in the town," the veteran diplomat said, highlighting the influence of foreign policy messages on domestic politics as well.

Turning back to the proposed Caucasia platform, Sanberk said that today's circumstances were not sustainable for Russia, although it had manipulated very good chess maneuvers in the recent incidents by showing off its military capacity at a time when the European continent's security capacity was overstretched.

"But now it needs sustainable power, and it cannot rely forever and solely upon the ups and downs in natural gas prices to maintain its power. This should be well explained by Turkey to Russia, with which it has a strategic relationship. Moscow should understand that the Soviet Union cannot be re-established and that the current situation is not in its interests, either. As for the Georgian ambassador's remarks, they are not surprising, Tbilisi is naturally trying to maintain its position at this phase.

"I find comments suggesting that a new cold war era has started as exaggerated, but it is obvious that the cards are being redistributed. And that this is happening -- putting forward constructive and positive ideas -- as Ankara has been doing, is extremely good," Sanberk said. "The fact that this idea has not been rejected spells that it will be able to stand on its own feet. Even if these five countries come together and set a date for their second meeting without making a concrete decision over disputed issues, this will be a real success."

‘EU, US should be well informed'
As of Tuesday, during a briefing at the US State Department's Foreign Press Center on the "Situation in Georgia and Implications for the Caucasus," Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's proposal for a Caucasus cooperation platform appeared to have received a lukewarm response from the State Department's top diplomat for Eurasian and Caucasian affairs.

"I must say I was surprised," Matt Bryza, the US deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, was quoted as saying by the Anatolia news agency at the briefing. "I hadn't been briefed that that was going to happen. We have a partnership with Turkey on the Caucasus, and I presume that we'll be able to work together very closely now with our allies in Turkey since we do have clearly shared interests, not to mention values, throughout the Caucasus with our Turkish ally."

According to Associate Professor Kasım Kamer, the United States would like to actively take place in such a platform, and those remarks reflect their disappointment over the perception they got as if they were being excluded on purpose from this platform by Turkey.

"Russia's actions in Gori led to an environment of cold war, and Washington was actually not expecting such action by Russia, which fuelled already existing doubts over Moscow's respect for Georgia's sovereignty. All of these facts might have led to such a distanced manner by the United States; however, in the long term, this platform is also in the interest of the United States," Kamer, of the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO/ USAK), told Sunday's Zaman.

Retired Ambassador Özdem Sanberk, a former Foreign Ministry undersecretary, was actively involved in 2001 in the arrangement and conduct of series of conferences under the title "Seeking Stability in the Caucasus," initiated by the İstanbul-based Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV).

The late İsmail Cem, then foreign minister, had also attended those conferences -- during which establishment of a Caucasus Stability Pact was discussed.

"Then we were discussing the involvement of the United States and Iran in the issue; today there is no US aspect of the issue at the time being, but Washington should definitely be persuaded to effectively support this initiative," Sanberk told Sunday's Zaman.

"The Western world in general, for example via NATO, and the United States in particular should be appropriately briefed that their interests in the region will be protected. In this regard, Mr. Babacan's telephone talks are very positive. Yet I believe that the level should be upgraded with Mr. Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan holding talks with EU term president France's leader Nicolas Sarkozy as well as with the EU's foreign policy chief Javier Solana," the veteran diplomat added.

Approached by Sunday's Zaman on Friday and invited to comment on the Turkish proposal, US Embassy Press Attaché Kathryn Schalow first of all praised Turkey's efforts as a regional player.

"As we have seen in the recent past, Turkey has played an important role in the region, and we hope that Turkey's new efforts to promote stability in the South Caucasus will be in harmony with other international efforts to promote peace, prosperity and stability in the Caucasus -- including through NATO, the EU and the OSCE," Schalow told Sunday's Zaman. "And we look forward to consulting with Ankara on its Caucasus platform concept," she added.

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