The fourth middle-term program, covering the period between 2009 and 2011, was accepted by the Cabinet and published in the Saturday edition of the Official Gazette. The main goal of the plan, the DPT explained, was to put forward a plan to increase the living standards of the individuals in accordance with the vision of a Turkey "growing in stability, distributing income more fairly, being competitive on the global scale, transforming into an information society and having completed the harmonization process for EU membership."


According to the plan, gross domestic product (GDP) will climb to $773 billion in 2009, $810 billion in 2010 and $901 billion in 2011. These numbers mean that the economy is expected to grow by 5 percent next year. In the following two years, the growth rates will be 5.5 percent and 6 percent, respectively.

These bold targets seem not so easy to attain considering that the world is being harshly hit by waves of recession fears, stemming from soaring oil prices and a subprime mortgage crisis.

In parallel to the projections on the GDP, per capita GDP will also see significant increases during the mentioned years. The DPT plan estimates that this figure will exceed $9,000 in 2009 and will likely be $12,164 in 2011. The DPT also forecast consumer prices index (CPI), that is, inflation, at 7.5 percent, 6.5 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, in each of the next three years. It expects the determination to meet inflation targets by the government and the central bank will continue during the period covered by the plan.

It also devoted a special part to measures to be taken to boost employment, setting demanding targets for this too. If the DPT's estimates prove true, 1.3 million people in total will have the opportunity to find a job for the first time in the coming three years.

Still, the report was cautious as it considered the possibility of a "slowdown" in the global economy and international trade. Depending on this moderately pessimistic suggestion, it estimated that Turkey's exports will only rise 10.4 percent on average during the three years ahead to reach $181.7 billion annually by 2011. It has long been increasing at rates more than 20 percent. Imports will also see a drop in the rate of increase, the report said. Turkey will be importing goods worth $277.6 billion by 2011 after seeing a 9.1 percent average increase annually, it said.

Tourism revenues will continue to make record highs, it estimated: In 2009, $21.4 billion will flow in from foreign investors and climb to $23.6 billion by 2011, according to the plan. All in all, the report suggested that the rate of the current account deficit over the GDP will be around 6 percent after three years.

The decisive commitment of the government in the privatization process was underlined in the plan, which said the state will completely leave the electricity distribution, telecommunications and sugar production industries. It also estimated that the state's share in port administration will see a sharp decrease.

Public investments, the report highlighted, will be used as an "effective instrument" to decrease the disparities in the levels of development among different regions of the country. Impoverished regions will be given priority in the allocation of the investment budget, it indicated, and said that large sums will be transferred to complete the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) as well as some economic projects in eastern Anatolia and the Konya plain. The state's coffers will also provide money for the installation of facilities for better use of the country's renewable energy resources.

Some other plans as detailed in the DPT plan were as follows: The private sector will be encouraged to participate more in infrastructure projects. Measures will be taken to ensure long-term energy supply security and to prevent power outages that may arise in the medium term. Local and renewable resources will be given utmost priority to decrease the dependency on natural gas from foreign suppliers. More attention will be paid to boosting research and development activities on satellite technologies and production.


Todayszaman