The Social and Political Situation in Turkey survey, conducted by the Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic & Social Research Center from Aug. 29-31, polled 1,251 people in several Turkish cities to find their views on the current political situation in the country -- which recently heaved a sigh of relief following the rejection of a closure case against the governing AK Party -- and the popularity of President Abdullah Gül, who recently completed his first year in office.

According to the survey, a clear majority of Turkish society supports Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AK Party, while the opposition parties, namely the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), continue to suffer from declining popularity with the public.

Asked who they would vote for if there was an election today, 50.9 percent of respondents said they would vote for the AK Party. The figure demonstrated the ruling party's considerable increase in popularity in less than a month, as around 42 percent of those polled had said in early August they would vote for the AK Party if parliamentary elections were to be held the day of the poll. The survey revealed the CHP and the MHP would remain below the election threshold should general elections be held on the poll date. Only 9.5 percent of respondents said they would vote for the CHP; 6.6 percent said they would favor the MHP (6.6) and 2.6 percent said they would vote for the Democratic Society Party (DTP). However 13.9 percent of those polled had said in the previous survey that they would vote for the CHP and 8.4 percent for the MHP. Of the remaining respondents, 11.3 percent said they were undecided, while 7.0 percent said they would simply vote a blank ballot; 2.0 said they would not go to the ballot box at all, while 5.3 percent said they had no opinion.

Another major topic of the survey was the president's popularity among the people. In response to a question on whether Gül had succeeded in being everyone's president during his first year in office, 55.7 percent of those polled said yes, whereas 19.7 percent said no.

The remaining either said they had no idea or that Gül reached his goal partially. Asked which president -- Gül, or former President Ahmet Necdet Sezer -- they trusted, 56.4 percent of the respondents said they trusted Gül and 21.7 percent said they trusted Sezer.

Participants were also surveyed about concerns over secularism and the regime in Turkey. In response to a question over whether they shared the concerns for secularism and the regime raised during the process of Gül's election as president, 52 percent responded negatively and 26.6 percent positively. When asked whether Gül's behavior and decisions during his first year in office endangered secularism in Turkey, 78.4 percent said no and 17.7 percent said yes.

Respondents were also asked about their view regarding the fact that Gül's wife, Hayrünnisa, wears the Islamic headscarf. In response to a question on whether they perceived her headscarf as a problem, an overwhelming majority of those polled -- 85.8 percent -- said no, with 13.7 percent responding positively.

When asked whether Gül had acted with impartiality during his first year in office, 60.4 percent responded that he was completely impartial while 34.4 said he had displayed partisanship. Over 76 percent of respondents said Gül was sensitive toward society's social problems, while around 20 percent said he was insensitive. In response to a question over whether they were satisfied with Gül's performance in the presidency so far, 77.9 percent of those surveyed said yes and 20.8 percent said no.

Those polled were also asked for theirs opinion regarding Gül's recent appointments of university rectors. Asked whether they were satisfied with Gül's choices, 62.5 percent of respondents said they found them to be positive, and 25.5 percent said they found them negative.

Gül appointed new rectors for 21 Turkish universities on Aug. 5. The appointments drew the ire of some circles, who leveled harsh criticism at Gül, claiming he nominated rectors with no experience in the field but who were known for their closeness to the AK Party. A number of professors from various universities even resigned from their posts in protest, saying they were dissatisfied with the rector appointments at their respective universities.

When asked if they approved of CHP officials' refusal to attend any official or private meetings with Gül held at the Çankaya presidential palace, an overwhelming majority of respondents said they believed the CHP officials were pursuing a wrong strategy, and only 12.7 said they supported the CHP's stance in that regard.

Another question directed at respondents was about Gül's pardoning of former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan. In response to a question over whether Gül was right to use his presidential pardon to lift Erbakan's sentence, 54.6 percent said he was right in doing so; 33.7 percent said he was wrong, and 11.8 percent said they had no idea.

To justify his pardon, Gül cited a report prepared by the forensic medicine administration showing that Erbakan's health was deteriorating. Erbakan, the former leader of the now-defunct Welfare Party (RP), was sentenced to two years and four months behind bars in a lawsuit known as the "lost trillion" case, but was able to postpone serving his sentence by submitting medical reports to the court. The lost trillion case concerns the disappearance of more than 1 trillion Turkish lira in Treasury grants to the RP.

Asked whether Gül should go to Yerevan to attend a soccer match between the Turkish and Armenian national teams upon an invitation from his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sarksyan, 67.4 percent of those polled said he should go and 22.9 percent said he should not accept the invitation.

Sarksyan had previously invited Gül to watch the Sept. 6 World Cup qualifying match between the Turkish and Armenian national teams in Yerevan, with which Ankara does not have any official relations.

Officials from the CHP and the MHP have been extremely critical of the prospect of a possible visit to Armenia by Gül. They say a visit to Yerevan would mean alienating Azerbaijan, which is of vital importance to Turkey on many fronts. Turkey was among the first countries to recognize Armenia's independence, but closed its border with the latter and severed formal ties with Yerevan after Armenia occupied Nagorno-Karabakh.

A considerable majority of poll respondents also said Gül was honest and trustworthy, a strong and decisive leader, a good statesman, attached importance to the country's problems and expectations of the people, represented Turkey with success, was democratic and pro-freedom and had the characteristics of a leader.

Support for EU membership on the rise

The survey also has found a clear majority of Turkish society supports Turkey's bid to join the European Union. Public support for Turkish EU membership has shown a considerable increase since the survey conducted in August.

In response to a question on whether they would vote for or against Turkey's EU membership if there were a referendum today, 69.1 percent said they would vote "yes," while 23.7 percent said they would vote against it. In the previous survey, 28 percent of those polled were against EU membership while 66.2 percent supported it.

When asked what they thought about political party closures in Turkey, 40.9 percent of those polled said political parties should only be shut down if they resort to violence or call for violence in the country; 37.4 percent said parties should not be disbanded under any condition, and 16.9 percent said existing legal provisions about political party closures in Turkey should remain untouched.

In response to a question over whether the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) should be shut down, 57.6 percent said it should remain open; 31.2 percent said it should be closed, and 11.3 percent said they had no idea.

A closure case was filed against the DTP last year by a state prosecutor on the grounds that it had become a focal point for separatist activities.

Another question directed at respondents was about the government's plan to launch Kurdish broadcasts through the state-owned Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT). Asked what they thought of the plan, 43.7 percent said: "I see the plan positively. Having a Kurdish TV station will improve Turkish democracy." But 51.8 percent said: "I see it negatively. Having a Kurdish TV station will increase separatist activities."

In response to a question over whom the respondents admired most among living statesmen and politicians, 33.3 percent said they admire Prime Minister Erdoğan, followed by President Gül (14.7) and former President Sezer (5.1).

Asked which of the existing political party leaders they trusted most, 51.9 percent of the respondents said they trusted Erdoğan the most, followed by CHP leader Deniz Baykal (4.2) and MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli (4.2).

The telephone poll was conducted Aug. 29-31 among a random national sampling of 1,251 adults residing in cities, towns and villages. The margin of error for the full poll is 2.8 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence level.

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