The Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center conducted a survey on the new direction of Turkish politics and the impact of the global financial crisis on Turkey. The chief question of the survey was on the recent shift in the political line of Erdoğan, who was highly respected in the past for bold reforms which helped Turkey take courageous steps to become a more democratic country, but is currently being sniped at by some for turning into a leader reflecting the status quo. According to the survey, 45.9 percent of those polled miss the old Erdoğan, saying they are not pleased with his current "short-tempered" style.

Out of all respondents, only 16.8 percent said they like the current incarnation of the prime minister.

Around 14 percent replied that they like both versions of Erdoğan, while 18 percent said they don't like either. What is striking is that participants did not find the question odd, ostensibly justifying all the criticism that there has been an observable change in the prime minister's political stance.

»» To access all results of the survey, please click here. 

Erdoğan has recently been accused by some circles of becoming an autocratic and erratic politician after his ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) narrowly escaped closure by the Constitutional Court last July. He has been slammed for "coming like Obama, but turning into some sort of Bush" by some observers.

This comparison, however, was not found to be justified by an overwhelming majority of respondents, who said likening Erdoğan to Bush was too harsh of a criticism. More than 61 percent of those polled said the Turkish prime minister cannot be compared to Bush, while 31.6 percent noted that Erdoğan entered the Turkish political scene like US President-elect Barack Obama but later became more like outgoing US President George W. Bush.

Respondents were also asked about a recent change in the overall policies pursued by the AK Party. When asked whether the governing party had abandoned its democratic and "libertarian" line and adopted a pro-status quo and statist approach, 48.4 percent replied "yes." Thirty-six percent said the AK Party is still pursuing its pro-freedom policies, and 15.6 percent declined to comment.

Another important question directed at participants was about the slowing of reforms implemented on the path toward full EU membership. Nearly 57 percent said there has been a considerable slowdown in the AK Party government's efforts to join the 27-nation bloc; 29.9 percent of respondents replied to the contrary and 13.5 percent said they have no idea.

EU officials have long expressed doubts over Ankara's performance in fulfilling the Copenhagen criteria. A delegation led by Hannes Swoboda, the vice president of the Socialist Group in the European Parliament, had talks with President Abdullah Gül, Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan last week. They complained there had been a slowdown in reforms due to a number of reasons. "The reform process cannot be interrupted; otherwise, Turkey cannot become a member of the EU in a timely fashion," they warned.

A majority of respondents of the poll, 59.3 percent, said the AK Party should lose no time in speeding up the reform process. Twenty-six percent expressed satisfaction with the current pace of reforms, and the rest did not respond.

AK Party's role in solution of Kurdish, Alevi questions

Participants of the poll were also asked questions about the AK Party's role in solving the issues surrounding the Kurdish and Alevi communities, two problems Turkey has struggled to solve for many years.

The Turkish nation seems divided on the impact of a statist and nationalist approach from Erdoğan to the Kurdish question. While 45.4 percent claimed such an approach would have a negative impact on the solution of the Kurdish problem, 33.3 percent said it would have a positive impact and 21.4 percent refrained from any comment. An overwhelming majority (70 percent) of supporters of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) said Erdoğan's nationalist stance on the Kurdish issue would stall progress on the issue.

Erdoğan drew the ire of many, especially Kurds, for increasing tension in the already troubled Southeast when he said last month that those who are opposed to the idea of one state and one nation should leave Turkey. Many Kurdish political and business leaders regarded Erdoğan's remarks as "racist" and demanded an apology. Rather than apologize, Erdoğan, however, has reiterated the same words on several different occasions.

Respondents were also critical of the improvement of dialogue with the Kurdish administration of northern Iraq. When asked about the outcome of a recent rapprochement between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani, only 38.5 percent said the move would help solve the Kurdish issue in Turkey. Nearly 41 percent said it would complicate the solution to the problem, while the rest declined to comment.

Turkey's special envoy to Iraq, Murat Özçelik, met with Barzani last month, a move defined as a "historic development" for the thawing of the ice between Turkey and the Kurdish administration of northern Iraq.

The Turkish nation doesn't pin much hope on the AK Party for the solution of the Kurdish issue, according to the survey. While 33.7 percent of respondents expressed faith in the AK Party for the solving of the decades-old problem, 58.7 percent said the ruling party cannot solve it.

What is even more worrisome than a lack of confidence in the AK Party to solve the Kurdish problem is fear among the public of the eruption of conflict between Turks and Kurds. Forty-eight percent of those polled expressed fear that recent developments in the country may lead to a clash between Turks and Kurds. Around 45 percent said no such conflict would occur and 5 percent said they had no idea.

Another question was on the public's stance toward the demands of Turkey's Alevi community for broader cultural and religious rights. The Alevis, a group that differs from Sunni Islam and believed to have 6 to 12 million adherents in Turkey, have long complained that they are being deprived of their rights to express their cultural and religious diversity.

The AK Party has recently shaped a new initiative to produce solutions to problems faced by Alevi citizens. As part of the new initiative, Alevi dedes (religious leaders) will be granted a monthly salary. The electricity and water bills of cemevis (Alevi places of worship) will be paid for by the state. And the Madımak Hotel, where several Alevi intellectuals were killed in a fire set by religious fanatics in 1993, will be turned into a museum.

Forty percent of respondents, however, said cemevis should not be recognized as official places of worship nor should Alevi dedes be granted a monthly salary. Slightly more than 49 percent responded to the contrary.

Repercussions of CHP's chador initiative

Participants of the survey were also asked about a shift in the approach of main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal on covered women. Baykal surprised all earlier this month with his softened remarks on the Islamic style of attire, of which he was critical for many years. He said the chador was no longer a political symbol and that wearing it should not be seen as a form of opposition to the state.

Baykal's "chador initiative," however, seems not to have been appreciated by society, according to the survey. Asked how they evaluate the initiative, 63.3 percent said it was a negative move, while only 31.3 percent termed it as positive. Upon a question over whether Baykal is sincere in his initiative, an overwhelming majority (80.8 percent) replied that they didn't think Baykal was sincere. Only 13.9 percent expressed confidence in Baykal's remarks.

Upon a question over whether covered women should have an active role in Turkish politics, 68 percent of those surveyed replied in the affirmative. Just over 28 percent of respondents said "no" and 3.8 percent said they had no idea.

What if elections were held today

Pollsters also questioned the public about their voting behavior. If parliamentary elections were to be held today, 32.6 percent of those polled said they would vote for the AK Party, a figure much lower than the one in the July 22 (2007) poll, in which the ruling party won around 47 percent of the vote. This figure is, however, is likely to increase by at least 7 or 8 percent at the ballot box for the AK Party, through the split of the vote of those who are undecided, which the survey shows to be at around 40 percent. The CHP would receive 12 percent of votes cast, and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would garner 7.6 percent.

According to pollsters, such a great percentage of voters among those polled with no current preference towards a particular political party is a reaction towards the policies pursued by the ruling and opposition parties.

When asked about which party they will vote for in local elections slated for March 2009, 28.5 percent replied in favor of the AK Party, 12.7 percent in favor of the CHP and 7.2 percent in favor of the MHP. Pollsters said these replies demonstrated the popularity of the political parties regardless of the influence of their candidates on the public. These results will probably change when the main parties announce their candidates for the local elections.

Trust in leaders; pessimism about Turkey's future

Upon a question which of the existing political party leaders they trusted most, 33.9 percent of respondents said they trusted Erdoğan the most, a figure not very different to one revealed by a previous survey. Erdoğan was followed by the CHP's Baykal with 7.9 percent and the MHP's Bahçeli with 4.8 percent.

However, optimism about Turkey's future was not high. In response to the question "In which direction overall do you think Turkey is headed?" 65 percent said Turkey will change for the worse, while 25.9 percent said for the better.

The pessimism was directly related to a global economic crisis, the impact of which 82.5 percent of respondents said they can feel on their lives. More than 52 percent stated that they don't think the AK Party can manage the crisis well, while 37.7 stated that they did.

The poll was conducted from Nov. 24 to Nov. 26 by telephone among a random national sampling of 1,248 adults residing in cities, towns and villages. The margin of error for the overall poll is 2.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence level

Todayszaman